Saturday, December 16, 2017

NASCAR Dream Season still on hold, won't be posted here - but where?

I've had another change of heart on the NASCAR Dream Season project.  I am far from finished in compiling the information I need.  Furthermore, I have concluded that this blog isn't a perfect fit for presenting it, either.

Right now, I am still trying to calculate the numbers required for the race results, and I am focused on that.  At my current pace of about three hours a day, five days a week, it will take at least two months to complete, ending it just around the start of the Daytona speedweeks to open the 2018 season (climaxing in the historic 60th running of the Daytona 500; tickets available online here.).

Later, I will go back to the race result pages from the last five years to figure out more information I need to write complete summaries.  That will take even more time.

During this break, I have decided that I want to re-focus the blog on direct information and concepts related to the Barefoot family farm characters.  I don't know when the mood will strike in that area, but when it does this will definitely be the place it will be posted.

As for the NASCAR summaries, I have two options:
*I could put the results on a second, separate blog if Blogger allows me to do so for this purpose.
*I could record videos (my Dell Inspiron has a webcam, but I've never used it since I bought it in August 2016) and then post it to my YouTube channel (not updated since 2014).

Thanks for your patience and understanding.

A P.S. to stratonascar: Thanks for your new Google+ account and following me as you looked forward to seeing the summaries.  I know that you live in northern California, and I hope you buy tickets to the next race at Sonoma and enjoy yourself.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Oops! My Dream Season project has hit a roadblock as I start over

It's been a while - the beginning of September to be exact - since I launched my best guess as to who would races and championships in a mythical NASCAR season in which the best of the best drivers in history "compete" against each other.  I ran the simulation - and wrote reports on them - based on a set of rules I put together here.

Unfortunately, those rules turned out to be flawed, leading me to scrap my work and start all over again.

The biggest problem has to do with the stage-racing format that NASCAR began this year in all of its top series.  If you read that post, you noticed that the results of the stages depended on the historical data of all the drivers in those particular races of those particular series.  Many of them had such records to fall back on, but many others did not, and the consequences were obvious in some cases:
  • Herb Thomas, a member of the NASCAR Hall of Fame (class of 2013) for his great success in the 1950s, was given an automatic last-place finish in one of the races of the Can-Am Duel at Daytona because his career effectively ended before the track opened.  Per the rules, the only chance he had to make the Daytona 500 in my scenario was to have a fast-enough lap in Sunday's previous qualifying.  He did not, and therefore, he failed to qualify.  Most importantly, the purpose of the qualifying race - to determine who would make the main race among those not yet locked in - was defeated.
  • Adam Petty - one of my other full-time drivers in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series - is locked out of receiving any chance at stage points due to having made one career start in that series. (More races were planned, but he was killed in a race practice crash in May 2000). 
  • Joey Logano, Kasey Kahne, and Justin Allgaier similarly had limited opportunities to get stage points due to having few (Logano and Kahne) or no (Allgaier) career starts in the Camping World Truck Series, for which they "race" full time.

So what I will do from now on is to base all race results on the same criteria used for the supplemental statistical data - averages from the five-year period from 2012 to 2016.  Whatever finishing positions were attained by drivers in the same starting positions over that five-year period will be averaged together and the driver corresponding to the position with the best averages will win the stages and the race.  Points will be awarded to the 10 best averages after each stage and to all drivers in descending order at the end of each race.

Playoffs will be conducted under the rules outlined on the original page and the procedures will not change.

This week, I replayed the first nine MENCS races.  While full reports are pending, here is a glimpse based on my calculations:
  • Dale Earnhardt unfortunately does not get the Daytona sweep.  He still wins the Daytona 500 and the Advance Auto Parts Clash (the latter is the only race still completely using historical data, as that was available for all drivers), but he falls to third place in Duel race #1.  Jimmie Johnson is the new winner, and Ned Jarrett finished second.  However, had Earnhardt won race #1, he would have finished 18th in the "Great American Race," and would have had to beat the new five-minute crash clock just to get that; he would have been one of 17 cars involved in the "big one" toward the start of stage 3.
  • Two drivers earned "perfect scores"; that is, wins in both stages then in the race itself  - Earnhardt in the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond, and before that, Davey Allison in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas.  Under my original rules, Allison would have received no stage points as he never started there.  In fact, he was not even alive when Texas Motor Speedway opened in 1997; he had been dead for four years at that point.
  • Teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon had taken over the championship lead and were separated by just three points.  The key to their success was by dominating the stage points; Gordon was first with 95 points while Johnson was second with 88.  The battle to accumulate race points was very tight.

I plan to replay the Xfinity Series and Camping World Truck Series races next week, and then the writeups will resume shortly after that.  In the meantime, I will delete all the posts reflecting past results.

(Construction barricade picture courtesy Uline)

Saturday, October 21, 2017

Where this year's playoff drivers would be during the Dream Season

Believe me, at some point I will return to race-by-race summaries of the season, as "NASCAR goes west" to Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Auto Club Speedway.  But I feel that at this point I have what amounts to more timely information to give you at this point.

The three real-life seasons of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and Camping World Truck Series are all well underway with their playoffs.  The MENCS second round will end on Sunday at Kansas Speedway, at which the field will be reduced from 12 drivers to 8.  The NXS second round, which has 8 drivers, is to begin Saturday on the same track.  The NCWTS has also gone from the second round to the third with 6 drivers left standing for the title; the playoffs there resume on Oct. 28 at Martinsville Speedway.

In all, 36 drivers qualified for the combined playoff fields this year.  However, the introduction of all-time greats to the starting fields in all of the series will cause a ripple effect that will cause so many of these to have to seek rides elsewhere.

When the music stops, in what chairs will they sit?  Let's find out.

(Drivers' names are listed in the order of their original playoff seedings.)

Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series
  • Martin Truex, Jr. - #1 OneMain Financial Chevrolet in Xfinity Series (Truex won the series championship in 2004 and '05 driving for stepmother- and son Teresa Earnhardt and Dale Earnhardt, Jr.; Dale Jr. himself now owns the team)
  • Kyle Larson - #12 Chevrolet in Camping World Truck Series (Larson has won races in all three series; his truck wins have come at Rockingham in 2013 and Eldora in 2016)
  • Kyle Busch - #18 Toyota in NXS; he won the 2008 series title in that car prior to joining the Cup series and taking the championship in 2015
  • Brad Keselowski - #22 Discount Tire Ford in NXS; he won the 2010 series title in that car prior to joining the Cup series and winning the season trophy in 2012
  • Jimmie Johnson - #48 Lowe's Chevrolet; the only one of these 16 drivers to be in the same car, with same owner, sponsor, and crew chief in this simulation
  • Kevin Harvick - #2 Chevrolet in NXS; he is another champion of both NXS (2001, '07) and MENCS (2014)
  • Denny Hamlin - #20 Toyota (Hisense for most races) in NXS
  • Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. - shares #6 NXS car with Mark Martin; another two-time series champ (2011, '12)
  • Ryan Blaney - #66 Ford in NCWTS; Blaney was once a series full-timer and held the record for youngest race winner (age 18 at Iowa in 2012)
  • Chase Elliott - #52 Chevrolet in NXS; in 2014, he became the series' youngest champion ever, having turned 18 just two months before the Daytona season opener
  • Ryan Newman - #7 in Whelen Modified Series; has occasionally raced in the series with four career wins.  I have him going there when a reshuffling of teams ended up with the late Harry Scott, Jr. as owner of the version 1.0 team in what is now NXS; Newman was then "replaced" by Harry's son Brian.  Newman will have a limited NXS series as of the Las Vegas race in and around his modifieds schedule.
  • Kurt Busch - #97 Monster Energy/John Deere Ford; "reunion" with former car owner Jack Roush
  • Kasey Kahne - #21 Allegiant Air Chevrolet in NCWTS; I had Kahne winning the title in version 1.0 of the truck series; has five wins in six starts in real life
  • Austin Dillon - #21 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet in NXS; won 2013 series title despite having no wins that season; was NCWTS champion in 2011
  • Matt Kenseth - #34 Ford in MENCS; was with Roush Fenway Racing in version 1.0, but was cut due to limits as to team size (yet another new wrinkle of version 2.0); RFR retained Martin, Busch, Ned Jarrett, and Jeff Burton
  • Jamie McMurray - #42 ENEOS Chevrolet in NXS

Xfinity Series
  • William Byron - K&N Pro Filters East Series; he was series champ in 2015
  • Justin Allgaier - #19 Ford in NCWTS
  • Elliott Sadler - #01 Chevrolet owned by Johnny Davis in NXS
  • Daniel Hemric - cut his teeth in Legends cars, so probably ends up back there
  • Brennan Poole - ARCA Racing Series, where he won six races and finished third in the final 2012 standings
  • Ryan Reed - has experience in both ARCA and sports cars, so he'll find a ride in one of those
  • Jeremy Clements - would be another ARCA driver; his 2008 win in that series was his last in national competition before his improbable triumph at Road America in 2017
  • Blake Koch - K&N Pro Filters West Series, which he ran full-time in 2009
  • Cole Custer - KNPSW, which he ran full-time in 2013 as a 15-year-old
  • Matt Tifft - K&N Pro Filters East Series, which he ran full-time in 2013
  • Brendan Gaughan - #62 South Point Chevrolet in NCWTS
  • Michael Annett - nothing full-time; may jump in for occasional NXS or even MENCS runs

Camping World Truck Series
  • Christopher Bell - full-time in dirt racing
  • Johnny Sauter - part-timer in series; I have had him in the #23 and #99 trucks for various races
  • John Hunter Nemechek - "independent" late model sanctions
  • Matt Crafton - #88 Menards Toyota in NCWTS
  • Chase Briscoe - ARCA; was 2016 series champion
  • Ben Rhodes - KNPSE, which he ran full-time in 2014
  • Austin Cindric - I understand he has lots of sports-car experience, so he'll end up there somehow
  • Kaz Grala - KNPSE; he was a full-timer there for two years (2014 and '15)

Saturday, September 30, 2017

NASCAR Dream Season: Kyle Busch ends disappointing day

The back half of the Atlanta Motor Speedway doubleheader on Saturday, February 24 was the Camping World Truck Series' Active Pest Control 200.  This race was first run in 2004, discontinued in 2012, then restored in 2015.

February 24
Atlanta Motor Speedway
200.2 miles/130 laps (stages: 40, 40, 50)

In the end, the Dream Season version of this event also proved to be the back end of a bummer day for future NASCAR Hall of Famer Kyle Busch, who finished second - again.

Minutes after finishing "first loser" to Brad Keselowski in the Xfinity Series race, he climbed into the #51 Toyota Tundra he "leased back" to former owner Billy Ballew.  He took the lead from pole-sitter Kasey Kahne on lap 19 and hung on through the end of the first stage on lap 40.  Jack Sprague was kept on the track during the break and led the race on the restart.

The first major incident was on lap 48, when James Buescher (2012 champion) cut a tire and took John Wes Townley and Scott Riggs out with him.  Busch won stage 2 as well when the pit stops cycled through.

Stage 3 again saw a new leader when it went green, but this time it was due to Justin Allgaier winning the race off pit road.  However, Busch quickly regained the lead; in fact, he would lead 90 of the 130 laps in the race.

But - and I think you know where this is going - none of those laps were the last one.  That's because the truck Busch drove got looser and looser as the run progressed, enough for Matt Crafton, two-time champion and record holder for most career starts in NCWTS history, to make the pass with seven laps to go.  Crafton would go on to replicate his victory from 2015.

"Frankly, I don't know where it all went wrong for me," Busch would have said afterwards.  "Some things are meant to be, and unfortunately for me this whole day was not among them."

Busch's stage wins were based on three career wins and an incredible average finish of 1.80.

Two crashes on laps 94 and 113 during stage 3 ended the day for eight drivers.

Top 10 after stage 1: Kyle Busch, Ron Hornaday, Todd Bodine, Mike Skinner, Matt Crafton, Bobby Hamilton, David Reutimann, Timothy Peters, Dennis Setzer, Travis Kvapil
Top 10 after stage 2: Kyle Busch, Todd Bodine, Timothy Peters, Matt Crafton, Brendan Gaughan, Ron Hornaday, Mike Skinner, Johnny Sauter, Travis Kvapil



Final full-field results with point totals
  1. Matt Crafton - #88 Menards Toyota - 53
  2. Kyle Busch - #51 CertainTeed Toyota - 0*
  3. Travis Kvapil - #77 SafeLite Auto Glass Toyota - 37
  4. Todd Bodine - #13 Ride TV Toyota - 50
  5. Kurt Busch - #2 LTi Printing Ford - 0*
  6. Kasey Kahne - #21 Allegiant Air Chevrolet - 31
  7. Justin Allgaier - #19 Draw-Tite Ford - 30
  8. Joey Logano - #29 Cooper Standard Ford - 29
  9. Kyle Larson - #12 Georgia Tech Chevrolet - 28
  10. Mike Skinner - #5 Edelbrock Ford - 38
  11. David Reutimann - #18 Aaron's Toyota - 30
  12. Timothy Peters - #17 Red Horse Racing Toyota - 36
  13. Darrell Wallace, Jr. - #4 Sirius XM Toyota - 24
  14. Ryan Blaney - #66 Blue Gate Bank Ford - 23
  15. Ron Hornaday - #33 Smoky Mountain Snuff Ford - 36
  16. Erik Jones - #16 Great Wolf Lodge Toyota - 21
  17. Mike Wallace - #50 BB&T Chevrolet - 0*
  18. Jack Sprague - #7 Red Horse Racing Toyota - 20
  19. Johnny Sauter - #23 Allegiant Air Chevrolet - 21
  20. Jason Leffler - #83 Tom Johnson's RV/MRN Chevrolet - 17
  21. Scott Riggs - #52 Ford Credit Ford - 16
  22. Brendan Gaughan - #62 South Point Hotel & Casino Chevrolet - 21
  23. Bobby Hamilton - #98 Square D Toyota - 19
  24. Reed Sorenson - #02 Young Motorsports Chevrolet - 13
  25. David Ragan - #63 Mittler Racing Chevrolet - 12
  26. Regan Smith - #8 DAB Construction Chevrolet - 11
  27. Dennis Setzer - #44 TMM Chevrolet - 12
  28. John Wes Townley - #1 Zaxby's Ford - 9
  29. James Buescher - #92 Black's Tire Service Chevrolet - 8
  30. Jennifer Jo Cobb - #10 Racegirl Ford - 7
  31. Cale Gale - #99 Stone Mountain Park Chevrolet - 6
  32. Joe Ruttman - #49 Schwan's Ford - 5
*Driver not eligible for points

Top 8 in points after this race
  1. Todd Bodine - 89
  2. Matt Crafton - 85 (1 win)
  3. Ron Hornaday - 76
  4. Timothy Peters - 74
  5. Mike Skinner - 71
  6. Joey Logano - 69 (1 win)
  7. Bobby Hamilton - 64
  8. David Reutimann - 62
Race statistics
Pole winner: Kasey Kahne, 177.873 mph
Race speed: 130.397 mph
Margin of victory: 0.402 seconds
Time of race: 1 hr., 32 min., 7 sec.
Cautions: 6 for 29 laps
Lead changes: 7 among 5 drivers

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Xfinity Series Rinnai 250 at Atlanta Motor Speedway

In 2015, Atlanta Motor Speedway president Ed Clark launched a new idea for his racetrack: placing both the Xfinity and Camping World Truck series races on the same day.  As it turns out, it's the Saturday after the Daytona 500, meaning that there's another occasion for all three of NASCAR's top series to get together.

Up first was the Xfinity Series Rinnai 250.  The series has raced at AMS every year, once a year, since 1992.  Jeff Gordon - driving the #1 Baby Ruth Ford for Bill Davis - was the winner of that race; months later, he would sign with Rick Hendrick and make his Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series debut on the same track.  Carl Edwards won the 2005 event for his first career win, which he would back up with his first career Cup win the next day - still the only time that has ever occurred.  Kevin Harvick (2013-15) and Kyle Busch (2016-17) are the only race winners in the last five years.

And it was Harvick who was the only leader of this dream race early on; he led the first 48 laps, including all 40 in the first stage (based on his series-high four NXS wins at Atlanta).  Busch took over the lead on the second-stage restart.  That stage had only one caution, as Joe Nemechek spun off turn two on lap 69.  The leaders came down for the pit stops, and there Brad Keselowski beat Busch off, and held on to win stage two.  ("Brad K" has never won at AMS in the series, but his average of 6.17 as of the 2016 race was good enough to be best among all qualifiers.)

Top 10 after stage 1: Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Jamie McMurray, Kyle Busch, Greg Biffle, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Joe Nemechek, Johnny Benson, Michael Waltrip
Top 10 after stage 2: Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Kyle Busch, Brian Scott, Paul Menard, Jamie McMurray, Clint Bowyer



A four-car crash early in stage 3 took out 1996 and '97 series champion Johnny Benson and teammate J.J. Yeley among others.  Keselowski, meanwhile, passed Busch for the lead with 17 laps to go and held on for the win.  However, Harvick's consistent day gave him the most points among all drivers.  Bobby Labonte finished third for Joe Gibbs Racing.

Past champs Austin Dillon and Martin Truex, Jr. were among those caught speeding on pit road, thereby costing them potential good finishes.

Final race results with point totals:
  1. #22 Brad Keselowski - Discount Tire Ford - 50
  2. #18 Kyle Busch - GameStop Toyota - 46
  3. #11 Bobby Labonte - AXE Body Spray Toyota - 0*
  4. #2 Kevin Harvick - Hunt Brothers Pizza Chevrolet - 51
  5. #7 Geoffrey Bodine - Brandt Chevrolet - 32
  6. #60 Carl Edwards - Arris Ford - 48
  7. #5 Brian Vickers - Armour Meats Chevrolet - 30
  8. #43 Adam Petty - Smithfield Foods Ford - 0*
  9. #20 Denny Hamlin - Hisense 4K Toyota - 28
  10. #33 Paul Menard - Menards/Dutch Boy Chevrolet - 30
  11. #55 Clint Bowyer - Aaron's "Lucky Dog" Toyota - 27
  12. #21 Austin Dillon - Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet - 25
  13. #42 Jamie McMurray - ENEOS Chevrolet - 33
  14. #16 Greg Biffle - Leidos Ford - 34
  15. #6 Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. - Roush Performance Ford - 26
  16. #48 Randy LaJoie - DC Solar Chevrolet - 21
  17. #99 Michael Waltrip - Aaron's "Dream Machine" Toyota - 21
  18. #98 Matt Kenseth - Resers Meats Ford - 0*
  19. #01 Elliott Sadler - FlexSeal Chevrolet - 18
  20. #88 Mike Wallace - Hellman's Chevrolet - 17
  21. #1 Martin Truex, Jr. - OneMain Financial Chevrolet - 16
  22. #52 Chase Elliott - Emory Healthcare Chevrolet - 15
  23. #24 Buckshot Jones - Can-Am/BRP Toyota - 14
  24. #87 Joe Nemechek - Leaf Filters Chevrolet - 16
  25. #8 Kenny Wallace - MillionThanks.org Chevrolet - 0*
  26. #32 Brian Scott -  Shore Lodge Chevrolet - 15
  27. #14 J.J. Yeley - Owens-Corning Toyota - 10
  28. #39 Rob Moroso - ZombieAuto.com Chevrolet - 9
  29. #44 Johnny Benson - Johnsonville Toyota - 10
  30. #51 Jack Ingram - RepairableVehicles.com Chevrolet - 7
  31. #40 Jeff Green - Nutrition for Life Dodge - 6
  32. #78 Bobby Hamilton, Jr. - McLeod Motorsports Chevrolet - 5
  33. #0 Sam Ard - JD Motorsports Chevrolet - 4
  34. #90 Bill Rexford - Boomershine Auto Chevrolet - 3
  35. #28 David Green - WinField United Toyota - 2
  36. #4 Jimmy Spencer - FlexSeal Chevrolet - 1
  37. #74 Bobby Isaac - Mike Harmon Racing Dodge - 1
  38. #13 Ricky Craven - Long Motorsports Dodge - 1
  39. #07 Chuck Bown - Sea Life Chevrolet - 1
  40. #93 Jeff Purvis - Sieg Motorsports Chevrolet - 1
*Driver ineligible for points in this race
Top 12 in points after this race
  1. Kevin Harvick - 100
  2. Brad Keselowski - 84
  3. Geoffrey Bodine - 73
  4. Carl Edwards - 72
  5. Clint Bowyer - 62
  6. Greg Biffle - 61
  7. Kyle Busch - 59
  8. Michael Waltrip - 56
  9. Austin Dillon - 55
  10. Paul Menard - 55
  11. Denny Hamlin - 54
  12. Chase Elliott - 49
The second half will be in the next post.

Sunday, September 17, 2017

NASCAR dream season Daytona 500

Now for the post that you've all been waiting for.

Since the opening of Daytona International Speedway in 1959, the Daytona 500 has become the greatest race in the stock car world, and the Harley J. Earl Trophy perhaps the greatest individual trophy.  A win makes a career; multiple wins make a legend.

The moments make the ultimate highlight reel: Lee Petty's win in the first race, confirmed only by photo finish; the 1976 collision in which David Pearson outlasted Richard Petty; the first national telecast in 1979 and the post-race fight; Ned Jarrett's emotional reaction after his son Dale won the 1993 race; Dale Earnhardt's highly popular breakthrough victory in 1998; Michael Waltrip's first career win on the day Earnhardt was killed in 2001; Kevin Harvick's narrow win and last-lap crash behind in 2007; Denny Hamlin winning the closest finish ever in 2016; Kurt Busch's first win as "old man" Tony Gibson acted like a little boy in 2017.

For the race I'm running, the field includes 20 drivers who have won 43 of the 59 races held to date.  Of those, 12 have won more than once.

I would book Garth Brooks for the pre-show entertainment concert, Carrie Underwood for the national anthem, and as grand marshals I would hire Bill France Sr., Bill France Jr., and Junior Johnson.  The Frances and Johnson were three of the five members of the inaugural class of the NASCAR Hall of Fame.  The other two - Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt - will drive in the race.

This looks like an awesome race, so let's drop the green flag on this one.

February 18
Daytona International Speedway
500 miles/200 laps (stages: 60, 60, 80)

Mark Martin, who once lived in Daytona Beach, was the pole sitter at 193.021 miles per hour; he went on to lead the first nine laps before Earnhardt's stalking efforts led to the first lead change.  Jeff Gordon passed Earnhardt on lap 16; three circuits later came the first caution when Tim Flock brought a cut tire to pit road.  The next caution came for debris on lap 45, by which time there were four more lead changes.  The lead changed hands twice more before Richard Petty completed a dramatic comeback from 16th to 1st to win stage 1.  (This was based on Petty's seven Daytona 500 wins, more than any other driver.)

A.J. Foyt stayed out to lead at the start of stage 2.  On lap 78, Harry Gant cut a tire and slammed into Adam Petty on the superstretch.  Then Jimmie Johnson spun off turn 2 to cause the race's fifth caution.  A wide variety of drivers led throughout the stage, including Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Davey Allison; however, Fred Lorenzen had a remarkable 46-lap run on fuel and had just enough to win stage 2.  (Lorenzen had an average finish of 6.91, best of all of those in the field with at least six starts.)

Stage 1 top 10: Richard Petty, Cale Yarborough, Bobby Allison, Jeff Gordon, Dale Jarrett, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bill Elliott, Sterling Marlin, Jimmie Johnson, Michael Waltrip
Stage 2 top 10: Fred Lorenzen, Ned Jarrett, Dale Earnhardt, Earnhardt Jr., Elliott, Terry Labonte, Petty, Benny Parsons, David Pearson, Davey Allison

Lap 144 brought the track's dreaded "big one" in which 18 cars sustained at least some damage.  It began when 1975 winner Benny Parsons lost a right front tire.  When some other cars checked up, they were all brought together into the same narrow spot, with the usual bad consequences.  Among the stars who ended with wrecked cars: Martin, Stewart, Darrell Waltrip, Bobby Allison, Neil Bonnett, Jeff Burton, and Matt Kenseth.  The race was stopped for some 28 minutes.

Once everyone came back, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and then Kurt Busch and Davey Allison asserted themselves as the front-runners.  But on lap 190, Earnhardt used the slingshot to take over the lead for the fourth time - and the last.

On the anniversary of the day he was killed in this very race, I have Dale Earnhardt as the winner of this mythical special event.  What's more, Dale Jr. came home in second place.  In third place was Davey Allison; his crew chief that day would be Larry McReynolds, the same one who led "the Intimidator" to victory in '98.

Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon rounded out the top five, while Michael Waltrip surprised with a sixth-place finish for a part-time team.  Richard Petty finished eighth, Jimmie Johnson 12th, and Lorenzen came home 19th.

Earnhardt would have been the first driver to win the Advance Auto Parts Clash, his race at the Can-Am Duel, and the Daytona 500 in the same year.

Full-field rundown with point totals
  1. #3 Dale Earnhardt - Nationwide Chevrolet - 48
  2. #8 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Budweiser Chevrolet - 47
  3. #28 Davey Allison - Havoline Ford - 35
  4. #97 Kurt Busch - Monster Energy Ford - 33
  5. #24 Jeff Gordon - Axalta Chevrolet - 39
  6. #51 Michael Waltrip - Seminole Hard Rock Toyota - 0*
  7. #21 David Pearson - Motorcraft Ford - 32
  8. #43 Richard Petty - STP Ford - 43
  9. #25 Tim Richmond - Farmers Insurance Chevrolet - 26
  10. #11 Cale Yarborough - FedEx Toyota - 36
  11. #31 Dave Marcis - Caterpillar Chevrolet - 26
  12. #48 Jimmie Johnson - Lowe's Chevrolet - 27
  13. #9 Bill Elliott - McDonald's Chevrolet - 34
  14. #16 Ned Jarrett - KFC Ford - 32
  15. #4 Joe Weatherly - Outback Steakhouse Chevrolet - 22
  16. #42 Lee Petty - Kroger ClickList Ford - 21
  17. #5 Terry Labonte - Kellogg's Chevrolet - 25
  18. #88 Dale Jarrett - UPS Ford - 25
  19. #98 Fred Lorenzen - Florida Lottery Ford - 28
  20. #78 Fireball Roberts - Furniture Row Chevrolet - 17
  21. #2 Buck Baker - Miller Lite Ford - 16
  22. #13 Sterling Marlin - Geico Chevrolet - 18
  23. #10 Ricky Rudd - GoDaddy Chevrolet - 14
  24. #7 Alan Kulwicki - Golden Corral Chevrolet - 13
  25. #12 Bobby Allison - Mobil 1 Ford - 20
  26. #1 Neil Bonnett - Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet - 11
  27. #14 A.J. Foyt - ABC Supply Chevrolet - 10
  28. #27 Rusty Wallace - AAA Ford - 9
  29. #15 Kenny Wallace - NAPA Chevrolet 8
  30. #18 Bobby Labonte - M&M's Toyota - 7
  31. #41 Benny Parsons - Target Chevrolet - 9
  32. #38 Tim Flock - Camping World Ford - 5
  33. #00 Buddy Baker - Haas Automation Chevrolet - 4
  34. #34 Matt Kenseth - Dockside Logistics Ford - 3
  35. #17 Darrell Waltrip - Tide Toyota - 2
  36. #20 Tony Stewart - The Home Depot Toyota - 1
  37. #6 Mark Martin - Valvoline/Walmart Ford - 1
  38. #99 Jeff Burton - Exide Ford - 1
  39. #33 Harry Gant - Dow Chemicals Chevrolet - 1
  40. #44 Adam Petty - Bush's Baked Beans Ford - 1
*Not eligible for points

Top 16 in points (this includes Duel races as well as the Daytona 500)
  1. Dale Earnhardt - 58
  2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - 55
  3. Jeff Gordon - 49
  4. Richard Petty - 46
  5. Cale Yarborough - 45
  6. Bill Elliott - 42
  7. David Pearson - 37
  8. Davey Allison - 35
  9. Kurt Busch - 33
  10. Ned Jarrett - 32
  11. Jimmie Johnson - 30
  12. Bobby Allison - 29
  13. Tim Richmond - 28
  14. Fred Lorenzen - 28
  15. Dave Marcis - 26
  16. Terry Labonte - 26
Additional statistics
Pole winner and speed: Mark Martin, 193.121 mph
Race speed: 152.853 mph
Margin of victory: 0.339 seconds
Time of race: 3 hr., 16 min., 16 sec.
Cautions: 9 for 40 laps
Lead changes: 28 among 16 drivers

B.W. comments: "This is an awesome thing.  Dale Earnhardt was one of my favorite drivers growing up, and he is part of the family that is the very reason I and so many others watch NASCAR today.  And for this to happen on the anniversary that killed him is sweeter than I can describe.  Even in a small, mythical way, it brings joy to the whole racing world."

Saturday, September 16, 2017

NASCAR Dream Season: Camping World Truck Series opener at Daytona

Over the last few years, the Camping World Truck Series has emerged as a mix between veteran drivers wanting a second chance at glory and young up-and-comers making names for themselves.  And that's definitely true here.

I placed Kasey Kahne, who has only a handful of starts in this series, in version 1.0 and he won the title!  He's back to defend, joined by current Cup stars Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, David Ragan, and Erik Jones; truck veterans Matt Crafton, Ron Hornaday, Brendan Gaughan, Darrell Wallace Jr., and Timothy Peters; and past series champions Mike Skinner, Jack Sprague, and the late Bobby Hamilton.

Their first test was the season-opening NextEra Energy Resources 250, which Daytona first put on in 2000.  Thrilling moments include the scary crash that literally cut a truck (driven by Geoffrey Bodine) in half in that first race, Carl Edwards' first national-level win in 2003, and Kaz Grala's triumph in 2017 which made him the youngest winner in the track's history.

February 16
Daytona International Speedway
250 miles, 100 laps (stages: 20, 20, 60)

But the race I put on would be nothing like any ever seen before.

For one thing, two drivers who started at the back of the field would take just 20 laps - the length of the first stage - to roar into the top 10!  Those would be Joe Ruttman (4th based on his win in the 2001 race) and Ted Musgrave (a past race runner-up who finished seventh).  Sweeping stages 1 and 2 would be Todd Bodine (2-time race winner, tied with Johnny Sauter who I left out of the starting field; and an average finish of 6.11 in nine starts).

Top 10 after stage 1: Todd Bodine, Timothy Peters, Bobby Hamilton, Joe Ruttman, Jack Sprague, Travis Kvapil, Ted Musgrave, Erik Jones, Ron Hornaday, Mike Wallace
Top 10 after stage 2: Bodine, Peters, Kvapil, Matt Crafton, Hamilton, Sprague, James Buescher, Hornaday, Musgrave, Wallace

The biggest accident came on lap 36 and involved six trucks, including Ruttman and past champs Jones and James Buescher.  Larson slid off the track and onto the backstretch on lap 93; collected were former three-time
Cup champion Tony Stewart and former Formula One driver Nelson Piquet, Jr.

The last lap was wild.  Bodine and Timothy Peters (second in both stages) battled for the lead, but both ran out of gas just seconds after each other in that order.  Just off turn 3, Logano took over the lead and won the race!  As he could not earn stage points due to him not having any previous starts in the truck series at Daytona, Logano needed all the race points he could get - and got them!

Full-field rundown with point totals
  1. #29 Joey Logano - Cooper Standard Ford - 40
  2. #33 Ron Hornaday - Smoky Mountain Snuff Chevrolet - 40
  3. #75 Austin Dillon - Food Country USA Chevrolet - 0*
  4. #5 Mike Skinner - Wauters Motorsports Ford - 33
  5. #18 David Reutimann - Nintendo Switch Toyota - 32
  6. #98 Bobby Hamilton - Square D Toyota - 45
  7. #63 David Ragan - Bommarito Chevrolet - 30
  8. #19 Justin Allgaier - Draw-Tite Toyota - 29
  9. #52 Scott Riggs - VisitOrlando.com Ford - 28
  10. #21 Kasey Kahne - Allegiant Air Chevrolet - 27
  11. #2 Mike Bliss - SKF Ford - 26
  12. #88 Matt Crafton - Menards/Goof-Off Toyota - 32
  13. #4 Darrell Wallace, Jr. - JBL Toyota - 24
  14. #7 Jack Sprague - Red Horse Toyota - 34
  15. #66 Ryan Blaney - Herbalife Toyota - 22
  16. #50 Mike Wallace - BB&T Chevrolet - 0*
  17. #17 Timothy Peters - SiriusXM Toyota - 38
  18. #13 Todd Bodine - Maroone Auto Group Toyota - 39
  19. #12 Kyle Larson - UNOH Chevrolet - 18
  20. #51 Tony Stewart - Rush Truck Centers Toyota - 0*
  21. #22 Nelson Piquet, Jr. - Petrobras Chevrolet - 16
  22. #02 Reed Sorenson - Young Motorsports Chevrolet - 15
  23. #74 Ted Musgrave - Mike Harmon Racing Dodge - 20
  24. #83 Jason Leffler - Fanatics Toyota - 13
  25. #23 Scott Lagasse, Jr. - Allegiant Air Chevrolet - 0*
  26. #16 Erik Jones - AISIN Toyota - 14
  27. #49 Joe Ruttman - LoanMart.com Chevrolet - 17
  28. #77 Travis Kvapil - SafeLite Auto Toyota - 22
  29. #92 James Buescher - Black's Tire Service Chevrolet - 12
  30. #62 Brendan Gaughan - South Point Chevrolet - 7
  31. #8 Regan Smith - Death Wish Coffee Chevrolet -  6
  32. #28 Steve Park - FDNY Foundation Chevrolet - 5
*Not eligible for points

Top 8 in points after this race
  1. Bobby Hamilton - 45
  2. Joey Logano - 40
  3. Ron Hornaday - 40
  4. Todd Bodine - 39
  5. Timothy Peters - 38
  6. Jack Sprague - 34
  7. Mike Skinner - 33
  8. David Reutimann - 32
Additional statistics
Pole winner and speed: Kasey Kahne, 179.623 mph
Race speed: 132.182 mph
Margin of victory: 0.425 seconds
Time of race: 1 hr., 53 min., 28 sec.
Cautions: 8 for 32 laps
Lead changes: 11 among 6 drivers

NASCAR Dream Season: Xfinity opener at Daytona

Don't worry, race fans.  In due course, I will get to the outcome of my redone "Great American Race," the Daytona 500.  But right now, it's on to the races the track holds on the two days before that.

With the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series field dominated by returning drivers, the two series just below it on the NASCAR rung are filled with the millennial drivers that succeeded them at the top of the stock-car racing world.  The Xfinity Series slogan is "names are made here," and this is definitely true for the drivers I have committed to full seasons.  Consider these career numbers for some of them, in that series alone:
  • Kyle Busch - 91 wins (most in series history), champion in 2008
  • Kevin Harvick - 46 wins, champion in 2001 and '07
  • Carl Edwards - 38 wins, champion in 2007
  • Brad Keselowski - 36 wins, champion in 2010
  • Denny Hamlin - 17 wins
  • Martin Truex, Jr. - 13 wins, champion in 2004 and '05
And that's not accounting for what has happened to them since.  Busch, Harvick, and Keselowski are also past season champions in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, and Truex Jr. is the favorite to win it all in 2017.

Oh, and another two-time champion, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., is only a part-timer in my scenario!

I have also added returnees like Brian Vickers, Jimmy Spencer, Elliott Sadler, Michael Waltrip, Jeff Green, and Adam Petty to the mix.  Finally, there are the earliest stars of the series, including NASCAR Hall of Famer Jack Ingram.

All of that will make Saturday afternoons as exciting as Sunday afternoons most weeks for the next nine months.

February 17
Daytona International Speedway
300 miles/120 laps (stages: 30, 30, 60)

It all began with the PowerShares QQQ 300, heir to a racing tradition that began with the series' first-ever race on Feb. 13, 1982.  Dale Earnhardt won that event, and I have his son Dale Earnhardt Jr. as the winner here, just as in the first version.  Here's how it happened:

Kyle Busch won the pole but faded back quickly as he lost the draft about halfway through the first 30-lap stage.  Tony Stewart came from the sixth starting position to win stage 1; that win was based on his seven February wins, which is tied with the elder Earnhardt for the most all-time.

On lap 49, Wendell Scott - the only black driver to win a top-series race and another member of the Hall of Fame - cut a tire and three other drivers (including Trevor Bayne, the youngest winner in Daytona 500 history) were caught up in the wreck, ending their days.  Geoffrey Bodine somehow maneuvered his way to the green-white-checkered flag to capture stage 2.  (That was based on his average finish of 2.63; all eight of his NXS finishes were in the top five.)

Top 10 after stage 1: Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Randy LaJoie, Geoffrey Bodine, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Joe Nemechek, Chase Elliott, Michael Waltrip, Carl Edwards
Top 10 after stage 2: Bodine, Harvick, Stewart, Kenseth, Clint Bowyer, Earnhardt Jr., LaJoie, Edwards, Brad Keselowski, Kenny Wallace

More bad wrecks followed: Brian Scott and Randy LaJoie side-drafted and found the superstretch wall together on lap 78.  Then came two huge wrecks, which each caused red-flag delays.  In the first, on lap 96, Busch lost a front tire and nine drivers, including Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Jamie McMurray, saw their races end.  Part two came with seven laps to go: A battle for position between Edwards and Joe Nemechek went horribly wrong, and their collision moved into the vicinity of seven other race cars.  Those included Mark Martin (who held the career win record in this series before Busch), past champs Johnny Benson and David Green, and the late and beloved Adam Petty.

Earnhardt Jr. inherited the lead and chose the inside lane for the restart.  That almost backfired, as Stewart fought hard from the outside, but in the end "Little E" had just enough to take the #3 Wrangler Chevrolet to victory.  Harvick finished third, Waltrip fourth, and Keselowski fifth.




 Full field rundown and point totals
  1. #3 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Wrangler Chevrolet - 0*
  2. #11 Tony Stewart - Old Spice Toyota - 0*
  3. #2 Kevin Harvick - Rheem Chevrolet - 49
  4. #99 Michael Waltrip - Aaron's Chevrolet - 35
  5. #22 Brad Keselowski - Siscount Tire Ford - 34
  6. #52 Chase Elliott - Florida Hospital Chevrolet - 34
  7. #21 Austin Dillon - Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet - 30
  8. #55 Clint Bowyer - 5 Hour Energy Toyota - 35
  9. #78 Michael McDowell - K-LOVE Chevrolet - 28
  10. #16 Greg Biffle - Leidos Ford - 27
  11. #20 Denny Hamlin - Hisense 4K Toyota -  26
  12. #33 Paul Menard - Menards Chevrolet - 25
  13. #7 Geoffrey Bodine - Brandt Chevrolet - 41
  14. #87 Joe Nemechek - Leaf Filters Chevrolet - 27
  15. #88 Mike Wallace - HendrickAuto.com Chevrolet - 22
  16. #1 Martin Truex, Jr. - OneMain Financial Chevrolet - 21
  17. #60 Carl Edwards - Arris Ford - 24
  18. #8 Kenny Wallace - Alert Today Florida Chevrolet - 0*
  19. #6 Mark Martin - Sam's Club Ford - 0*
  20. #43 Adam Petty - Smithfield Foods Ford - 0*
  21. #5 Brian Vickers - Pilot Truck Stops Chevrolet - 16
  22. #44 Johnny Benson - Spectrum Toyota - 15
  23. #28 David Green - WinField United Toyota - 14
  24. #18 Kyle Busch - NOS Energy Toyota - 13
  25. #98 Matt Kenseth - Fresh From Florida Ford - 0
  26. #93 Bobby Gerhart - Sieg Motorsports Chevrolet - 11
  27. #01 Elliott Sadler - JD Motorsports Chevrolet - 10
  28. #42 Jamie McMurray - ENEOS Chevrolet - 9
  29. #14 J.J. Yeley - Tri-Star Motorsports Toyota - 8
  30. #4 Jimmy Spencer - FlexSeal Chevrolet - 7
  31. #90 Scott Lagasse, Jr. - Nexteer Automotive Chevrolet - 6
  32. #32 Brian Scott - ShoreLodge Chevrolet - 5
  33. #48 Randy LaJoie - DC Solar Chevrolet - 16
  34. #39 Rob Moroso - CarShield Chevrolet - 3
  35. #40 Jeff Green - Long Motorsports Dodge - 2
  36. #24 Trevor Bayne - Nikko RC/Road Rippers Toyota - 1
  37. #46 Wendell Scott - Bethune-Cookman College Chevrolet - 1
  38. #0 Sam Ard - FlexSeal Chevrolet - 1
  39. #51 Jack Ingram - RepairableVehicles.com Chevrolet - 1
  40. #07 Chuck Bown - Sea Life Chevrolet - 1
Top 12 in points after race 1
  1. Kevin Harvick - 49
  2. Geoffrey Bodine - 41
  3. Michael Waltrip - 35
  4. Clint Bowyer - 35
  5. Brad Keselowski - 34
  6. Chase Elliott - 34
  7. Austin Dillon - 30
  8. Michael McDowell - 28
  9. Greg Biffle - 27
  10. Joe Nemechek - 27
  11. Denny Hamlin - 26
  12. Paul Menard - 25
Additional statistics
Pole winner and speed: Kyle Busch, 180.467 mph
Race speed: 140.354 mph
Margin of victory: 0.226 second
Time of race: 2 hr., 8 min., 15 sec.
Cautions: 8 for 31 laps
Lead changes: 25 among 11 drivers

The Camping World Truck Series opener will be detailed in the next post.

Saturday, September 9, 2017

NASCAR dream season continues with Can-Am Duel at Daytona

Since Daytona International Speedway opened in 1959, the starting lineup for the Daytona 500 has always been determined by two qualifying races.

The original distance for each race was 100 miles, or 40 laps.  In 1969, the races were extended to 125 miles, or 50 laps, and by the 1980s the name "Twin 125s" was adopted which was used until 1997.  In 2005, the races were lengthened again to the current 150 miles, or 60 laps.

From 1959 to '72, these were official races and drivers received full points.  In 2017, points were restored, but only for the top 10 drivers on the same basis as stage points.  No race points were awarded, and the wins were not placed on the drivers' official records.

So how did it go in my dream world?

First, I picked eight drivers (Buddy Baker, Michael Waltrip, Fred Lorenzen, Herb Thomas, Curtis Turner, Derrike Cope, Adam Petty, and Casey Atwood) to join the 36 locked into the field, as explained in the opening post.  I then placed them in 1-to-44 order of what I thought their qualifying laps would be.  Those laps were then transferred into one of two qualifying races, held on the Thursday night of speedweeks.  Here's how each of them would go.

Race 1
Mark Martin, the local resident of Daytona Beach, won a sentimental Daytona 500 pole with a speed of 193.021 mph.  That meant he also led the field to green for the start of this race.

He led the first seven laps before Dale Earnhardt, Jr. took the lead on lap 8.  On lap 18, two-time champion Ned Jarrett spun out off turn 2 and took out Bobby Labonte with him.  Everyone then came down pit road to fill the tank for the expected fuel run to the finish.

Darrell Waltrip used the draft from Cale Yarborough to take over the lead from Dale Earnhardt (the elder) at the halfway mark.  But that didn't last long, as "Junebug" retook the point on lap 38.  But on lap 49, the father got the better of son again and he wouldn't look back.  At the checkered flag, the winner was the king of the Duel (he had 12 wins, including 10 in a row from 1990-99).

Oh, and one more thing: I set this race on February 15, the exact anniversary of the only time "the Intimidator" won the Daytona 500, which was in 1998.  Six years later exactly, Dale Earnhardt Jr. was the race winner.

Full-field rundown with point totals
Dale Earnhardt - 10
Cale Yarborough - 9
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - 8
Darrell Waltrip - 7
Buddy Baker - 6
Fireball Roberts - 5
Neil Bonnett - 4
Jimmie Johnson - 3
Joe Weatherly - 2
Matt Kenseth - 1
Dale Jarrett - 0
Benny Parsons - 0
Kurt Busch - 0
Ricky Rudd - 0
Bobby Labonte - 0
Harry Gant - 0
Mark Martin - 0
Ned Jarrett - 0
Derrike Cope - 0^
Kenny Wallace - 0
Curtis Turner - 0^
Adam Petty - 0
^Failed to qualify

Pole speed: 193.021 mph
Race speed: 169.201 mph
Margin of victory: 0.358 second
Time of race: 53 min., 11 sec.
Cautions: 2 for 8 laps
Lead changes: 6 among 4 drivers


Race 2
The second race was faster, stranger, and had a more fantastic finish than the first.

It began with a bizarre moment on the second lap.  Thomas, two-time champion of the series in the early 1950s and inducted into the NASCAR Hall of Fame in 2016, pulled off the track just two laps into the race.  Worse yet, he was told by NASCAR officials that he was somehow ineligible to start the Daytona 500!  Needless to say, Thomas was angry and stormed off when FOX tried to interview him.

(This development was based on how I set the finishing order: career records in the qualifiers.  As with the Clash, drivers with the most wins were the race winners, and everyone else finished in order of career wins, followed by best remaining finishes.  Thomas was one of three drivers who never drove in a qualifier, so I had to put him in last place.  Unfortunately, this was contrary to the whole idea that drivers would race their way to either better starting positions or the race itself.  Failing that, Thomas had to have a speed fast enough to back into the event.  But he finished only sixth out of eight, which was not good enough.  The other two with zero attempts did get in: Tim Flock was one of the 36 guaranteed competitors, while Adam Petty [3rd] fell back on his speed when Buddy Baker raced in.  Bottom line: This was an unintended consequence for which I take full responsibility.)

Meanwhile, Tony Stewart used a combination of patience and aggression to grab the lead from Bill Elliott on lap 15.  Davey Allison led three laps (29-31) during a series of green flag pit stops, then Elliott retook the point.

On lap 44 came the only caution, for by far the biggest crash of the night.  Lee Petty cut a tire, and he slid on the superstretch, Buck Baker, Rusty Wallace, Davey Allison, and Tim Richmond went down with him.

Once the race resumed, Elliott continued to dominate.  However, that would end on lap 58, when Jeff Gordon stormed ahead to the front.  On the final lap, Bobby Allison (Davey's father) came up with a full head of steam and challenged for the lead, but it was not enough.  Gordon won by just .008 (eight-thousandths) of a second!

(The close finish reflected Gordon's tiebreaker edge over Allison.  Both had five wins, but Gordon finished second five times, Allison twice.)

Full-field rundown with point totals:
  1. Jeff Gordon
  2. Bobby Allison
  3. Bill Elliott
  4. Tony Stewart
  5. Sterling Marlin
  6. David Pearson
  7. Michael Waltrip
  8. Richard Petty
  9. A.J. Foyt
  10. Terry Labonte
  11. Jeff Burton
  12. Fred Lorenzen
  13. Davey Allison
  14. Dave Marcis
  15. Rusty Wallace
  16. Buck Baker
  17. Alan Kulwicki
  18. Tim Richmond
  19. Lee Petty
  20. Casey Atwood
  21. Tim Flock
  22. Herb Thomas
*Not eligible for points
^Failed to qualify

Pole speed: 192.963 mph
Race speed: 193.173 mph
Margin of victory: 0.010 second
Time of race: 46 min., 35 sec.
Cautions: 1 for 4 laps
Lead changes: 5 among 3 drivers

Sunday, September 3, 2017

NASCAR dream season: Advance Auto Parts Clash


NASCAR's season of dreams begins, as always, at Daytona International Speedway.  Built in 1959, it has proclaimed itself the "World Center of Racing."  Each February, stock car drivers return to chase glory in the season's most important events.

The first of these events is the Advance Auto Parts Clash.  In 1979, the track began this race to honor the previous year's pole sitters.  In recent years, past race winners and prior winners of Daytona 500 poles not otherwise qualified have also been eligible.

For this version, the past Daytona 500 pole sitters were not invited to help limit the field.  Those in the first two categories totaled 23; however, Richard Petty did not compete due to the #43 car not carrying pole award sponsor's logo, since it was that of Coors Brewing Company, which sponsors the pole contest award.  (I have heard stories that Petty did this as a promise to his mother, Lynda.  In any event, this only applied to the old Petty Enterprises, and not to the current Richard Petty Motorsports created in 2010 by a merger with a team owned by Ray Evernham.)  Petty, however, would have joined the Fox NASCAR broadcast as a guest analyst; Mike Joy was also joined by Phil Parsons and Doug Richert, filling in for returned drivers Darrell Waltrip and Jeff Gordon.

The starting lineup was determined by random draw, then the finishing order came from the drivers' career records, as retrieved from the individual race pages at racing-reference.info.  Ties were broken by best remaining finish for each driver.  So how would that have played out on the race track?
_________________________________________________________________________________

Dale Earnhardt, the biggest winner in the history of the season-opening exhibition, won the Advance Auto Parts Clash.  He took the lead from Jeff Gordon with 11 laps to go, making the decisive pass by going three-wide and cutting through the middle.  Davey Allison, who had one of the strongest cars at the start of the race, was involved in a five-car accident shortly after the resumption of the race after the break.  Terry Labonte restarted the race at the front of the field as he and crew chief Gary DeHart stretched the fuel run, and led a group of cars to pit during the break.  Jeff Burton's car would not re-fire after the break, resulting in his next-to-last-place finish.  During the cool-down lap, Gordon bumped his car into that of Dale Earnhardt Jr., in apparent retaliation for Earnhardt Jr. forcing Gordon wide and nearly crashing earlier.  Ironically, the two were teammates from 2008 to '15, and Gordon filled in for Earnhardt Jr. for eight races in 2016 when Dale Jr. was forced to sit them out due to a concussion.

Full-field rundown
  1. Dale Earnhardt
  2. Tony Stewart
  3. Dale Jarrett
  4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
  5. Jeff Gordon
  6. Neil Bonnett
  7. Darrell Waltrip
  8. Bill Elliott
  9. Rusty Wallace
  10. Mark Martin
  11. Terry Labonte
  12. Buddy Baker
  13. Jimmie Johnson
  14. Bobby Allison
  15. Matt Kenseth
  16. Kurt Busch
  17. Davey Allison
  18. Cale Yarborough
  19. Bobby Labonte
  20. David Pearson
  21. Jeff Burton
  22. Dave Marcis

Friday, September 1, 2017

Re-running a NASCAR season with a Hall of Fame driver lineup

As someone who has been out of work for years, I have lots of time to think about things.  Among them is an age-old question among sports fans: If the greatest stars from all eras could come together, who would win?

Since 2009, I have playing out those questions in various sports, based on my intuition and knowledge of sports history (not on computer simulations or board games such as APBA; believe me, I tried to change one seasons' cards into those of Pro Football Hall of Fame players and came up short in the attempt.)

Some of this was on a board related to 506 Sports, which tracks schedules and commentators for sports events, mainly in North America and specifically the United States and Canada.  When the moderator ended that, someone on 506 spun off a forum called All-Time Sports where the conversation continued.  I contributed simulated results in the NFL, Major League Baseball, the NBA, the NHL, some college sports, and NASCAR in that thread.

I thought that was the end of it, until last spring when one of my fellow users pointed me to AlternateHistory.com.  He all but invited me to go there if I had anything new to contribute, and within weeks a new idea came.  I chose to go back to NASCAR, and I did so for two reasons:
  • I watch NASCAR more intently than any other sport.  This goes back to my B.W. character and my desire to figure out where he would rank with the drivers who were on track at the time.  Even though I quit that after a 2007 vacation to Las Vegas on a week off for the premier series (don't ask), I have continued to be a fan ever since.
  • The fundamental changes to NASCAR in the years since my contributions to All-Time Sports are greater than for any other sport I have tracked.  While other sports have merely introduced new athletes, game schedules, and even venues (with the most notable example of the last of those being the NFL International Series in London and Mexico City), NASCAR has literally changed so much as to be unrecognizable - from introducing overtime and double-file restarts after cautions to changing the race cars and tracks a number of times.

In 2004, NASCAR had already introduced a playoff system, called the Chase, which it has since changed several times including even the name itself.  I decided not to run it as a tribute to long-time sponsor R.J. Reynolds, as in the Winston Cup.  But I long had questions about how different the season might have gone.

But the big impetus was the announcement on Jan. 21, 2017, that changed the very face of each race in the top three series - Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and Camping World Truck Series.  I went to the Jayski page at ESPN.com and got these details:

• At the end of the race, the winner will get 40 points, and then second through 35th will be awarded points on a 35-to-2 scale. Those finishing 36th to 40th will be awarded one point. There will be no bonus points for leading a lap or leading the most laps.
• NASCAR will award points 10-to-1 to the top-10 drivers at the end of each of the first two segments. The number of laps of each of the first two segments will be the same in a race (and won't change if the caution comes out), and the end of the second stage will be approximately at the halfway point of the race. A race would be official after the second stage if it rains.
• Drivers will now carry bonus points -- called "playoff points" -- throughout the entire playoffs (instead of just the first round) when the points get reset [to 2,000]. Drivers will earn five playoff points for every race win and one playoff point for every segment win. The top-10 drivers in the standings in the regular season also earn additional playoff points on a 15-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 scale. Drivers will continue to accumulate points throughout the playoffs and carry all the points earned during the year into each of the first three playoff rounds.
• Qualifying for the playoffs remains the same -- the regular-season champion plus 15 drivers based on wins with ties broken by points will get into the playoffs, as long as they are in the top 30 in the standings.
• The playoffs will remain divided into three three-race rounds with four drivers eliminated after each round to set up four finalists for the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Drivers automatically qualify into the next round with a win in that playoff round, and the remaining spots filled by the point standings. At Homestead, the top-finishing driver among the four finalists at the end of the race wins the title.
• The race purse will be paid at the final stage.
• The 150-mile qualifying races at Daytona will be worth points to the top-10 drivers on a 10-to-1 scale (just like a race segment), but the winners do not get bonus points for the playoffs.
• NASCAR won't allow teams to replace body panels during a race, and teams will have additional limitations on crash repair that likely will mean most drivers who have to go to the garage won't return for the remainder of the race.

So I decided to post some hypothetical results on the Alternate History site, set last February at Daytona Speedweeks.  However, after some soul-searching, I have found that AH is just not right for me, and therefore no more posts will appear there.  (Mainly it's because most of the content begins at a certain point in history and it changes.  There is no "certain point" here, since the drivers come from different eras.)

But I feel this place is perfect.  For one thing, I control all the content that appears, as long as it complies with all the site rules, of course.  For another, my character would love it; these are the drivers he would have admired at the very least, and competed against in some cases.  (I "followed" his career from 2003 to the start of '07.)  Finally, this provides new content for the blog, which I have not posted in quite some time.

So let's get started.

On this post, I will summarize the basic rules for the hypothetical season.  With the next, I will "begin" the season with the biggest races of the year, the aforementioned speedweeks events including the Daytona 500.

All series
Races from season 1.0 will be re-run in their entireties when applicable.  The only difference is the division of each race into three stages.  The number of stages for each race, and their percentage of the total number of laps in the scheduled distance, will vary from race to race.  See the individual pages on my Excel files for details.

Stage 1
Results of stage 1 will be based on the number of career wins in that race by drivers who qualified for the race.  The driver with the most wins will be the stage winner and pick up 10 stage points and 1 playoff point, if eligible.   The driver second in wins will get 9 stage points, the third-best will get 8, and so on, down to 1 point for 10th place.

For example, Richard Petty will win stage 1 of the Daytona 500, as he holds the record for the most wins in the "Great American Race" with 7.

Scenarios
⦁    If more than one driver has the same number of race wins, the driver with the best remaining finish in that race will be placed highest in the running order.  So those who finished as a runner-up in another race would be placed ahead of a third-place finisher, who would be ahead of a fourth-place finisher, and so on.
⦁    If there are fewer than 10 race winners in the field for that race, the drivers with the best remaining finishes in that race will earn stage points.
⦁    If fewer than 10 drivers in the starting lineup have participated in the race before, remaining stage points will go to drivers with the best starting positions.

Stage 2
Results of stage 2 will be based on the average career finishes in that race by drivers that have qualified for the race.  The driver with the best average finish will receive 10 stage points and 1 playoff point, if eligible.  The one with the next-best average gets 9 points, the one with the third-best average gets 8, and so on, down to 1 point for 10th place.

However, to qualify for possible stage points for average finish, drivers must have competed in a minimum number of races.  Exact minimums are as follows:
⦁    For races run 9 or fewer times - 3
⦁    Races run 10-24 times - 4
⦁    Races run 25-39 times - 5
⦁    Races run 40 or more times - 6

If fewer than 10 drivers in the starting lineup have qualifying averages, remaining stage points will go to the drivers who had the best finishing positions after Stage 1.

Please note that the results of stages 1 and 2 are based only on past results in that particular race, not on total wins or average finishes at the host tracks overall.

Stage 3
Results of stage 3 - and therefore the overall finish of the entire race - will be determined by duplicating the overall finish of the corresponding race in version 1.0.  The point system will be as described by Jayski/ESPN above.

Drivers not entered in the previous version will be inserted at the administrator's discretion. (That's my role, of course.) Returning competitors will usually, but not always, have the same position.  That is dependent on the relative strength of the teams for which they drive.

If there was no corresponding race in version 1.0, the final running order will be determined by the administrator based on a number of factors, including past results of each driver and statistical likelihood from certain starting positions.

Point eligibility
Drivers can only compete for the championship in one of the three series and will accumulate points only in that series.

Drivers in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series with at least 180 career starts as of the end of the 2016 season - the equivalent of five full seasons - are limited to ten races in the Xfinity Series and seven in the Camping World Truck Series.  They cannot compete in any of the last eight races on the schedule (playoffs plus the preceding race), nor can any Cup driver - regardless of experience - drive in the season finales at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Qualifying
Starting lineups for all races are determined by the administrator.  Only the top qualifying speed will be made public, except for the Daytona 500 for which the entire sheet will be published.

In Cup races, all chartered drivers and the top four open drivers will make the field.  Starting positions will be set in straight order from 1 through 40.  If there are more open entries than spots available, the last-place open driver(s) will fail to qualify.

For Xfinity races, the 33 drivers with the top results will start in that order.  This will be followed by six drivers qualifying with provisionals based on owner points for the teams they drive for.  The last spot will go to either a past champion or the driver for the team next-highest in points.

In the truck series, the procesure is the same, except that the top 27 results are locked in, followed by four provisionals plus one.

The Daytona 500 and Eldora truck series starting fields will be determined by qualifying races, with the fields set by the original qualifying sheet.

If qualifying is canceled, owners' points will set the field, with teams making all attempts starting ahead of those that did not, followed by season race winners and past champions if necessary.

Race and pole statistics
The average of the last five races will be used to determine the race speed, number of cautions, and number of lead changes.  If a race was shortened, the cautions and lead-change numbers will be projected for a full race.

Winning pole speeds for all races, except for the Daytona 500 and the Eldora truck races, will be based on an average of the last five qualifying contests held.

Some figures may be excluded from the averages if, in the administrator's discretion, they are disproportionate from the remaining numbers in the set.

Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series
Qualifying
Each race will have 40 drivers, down from 43 in Season 1.0.

Thirty-five (35) starting positions in each race are reserved for the drivers who finished atop the season standings in version 1.0.  They are (with season point totals):
1.    Jeff Gordon - 5,279
2.    Dale Earnhardt - 5,269
3.    Richard Petty - 4,984
4.    Mark Martin - 4,961
5.    Rusty Wallace - 4,867
6.    Cale Yarborough - 4,812
7.    David Pearson - 4,776
8.    Darrell Waltrip - 4,707
9.    Tony Stewart - 4,647
10.    Davey Allison - 4,634
11.    Bobby Allison - 4,626
12.    Bill Elliott - 4,581
13.    Dale Jarrett - 4,537
14.    Terry Labonte - 4,505
15.    Bobby Labonte - 4,313
16.    Ned Jarrett - 4,176
17.    Harry Gant - 3,826
18.    Jeff Burton - 3,713
19.    Tim Richmond - 3,682
20.    Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - 3,546
21.    Kurt Busch - 3,503
22.    Ricky Rudd - 3,499
23.    Buck Baker - 3,408
24.    Dave Marcis - 3,366
25.    Alan Kulwicki - 3,283
26.    Lee Petty - 3,248
27.    Matt Kenseth - 3,200
28.    Neil Bonnett - 3,015
29.    Benny Parsons - 2,977
30.    Sterling Marlin - 2,836
31.    A.J. Foyt - 2,821
32.    Fireball Roberts - 2,808
33.    Kenny Wallace - 2,451
34.    Tim Flock - 2,446
35.    Joe Weatherly - 2,421
The 36th position was assigned to Jimmie Johnson, who has tied the all-time record with seven season titles.  Johnson was 40th in season 1.0, in which he was full-time starting with the Southern 500.

This mimics the charter system that was established by NASCAR for the series in 2016.  Charters are awarded to owners based on at least five continuous years of entries, but can be sold or transferred.

All other drivers and teams must compete for remaining spots on an "open" basis, and are subject to failure to qualify if there are more than 40 entries for a given race.

Daytona 500 qualifying
Qualifying for the "Great American Race" begins with a two-round session.  Cars enter the track one at a time and take only one lap each.  The 12 drivers with the fastest laps qualify for the second and final round, at which the fastest driver gains the pole position and the next-fastest starts alongside.

All other starting spots are determined at the Can-Am Duel at Daytona.  The pole sitter for the Daytona 500 is also the pole sitter for race #1, and the second-fastest driver from single-car qualifying is on the pole for race #2.  The rest of the starting fields is determined as thus:
⦁    Race #1 - 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th fastest and so on from qualifying laps among the guaranteed starters, and the fastest, 3rd, etc. from the open drivers
⦁    Race #2 - 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th fastest and so on from the first phase among the guaranteed starters, and the 2nd fastest, 4th, etc. from the open drivers

Once the races are completed, the starting lineup for the Daytona 500 is set on this basis:
⦁    Drivers with the two fastest laps from the first phase
⦁    Top remaining finisher from race #1 then starts 3rd, then all other drivers in that race 5th, 7th, 9th etc. back to 37th, including the top open driver
⦁    Top remaining finisher from race #2 then starts 4th, then all others in that race 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th etc. back to 38th, again including the top open driver
⦁    The last two spots go to the third- and fourth-fastest non-guaranteed drivers from the original qualifying laps
All other open drivers will be eliminated.





As mentioned above, stage points will be awarded to the top 10 finishers in each race, as well as better starting positions.

Playoff structure
Round of 16 (2,000+playoff points) - Tracks: Chicagoland, New Hampshire, Dover
Round of 12 (3,000+PP) - Tracks: Charlotte, Kansas, Talladega
Round of 8 (4,000+PP) - Tracks: Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix
Championship 4 (5,000 only) at Homestead-Miami

Xfinity Series
As with Cup, fields have been reduced from 43 drivers to 40 for each race.

Dash4Cash
This special program, which dates back to 2012, rewards the series' regulars with the chance to win serious bonus money.

Two eligible drivers will qualify for the award after each of the first two stages.  If the same driver(s) finish in the top two after each stage, the next driver(s) in the running order after stage two will qualify to make up the four-driver field.  The driver who is first across the start/finish line at the end of the race in that group will win $100,000 cash.  If a driver sweeps all four such races, he will earn $1,000,000.

No driver with more than 180 career Cup Series starts can compete in any of these races.

The Dream Season schedule will be Phoenix on Mar. 10, Bristol on Apr. 14, Richmond on Apr. 21, and Pocono on Jun. 2.

Playoff structure
Round of 12 (2,000+playoff points) - Tracks: Kentucky, Dover, Charlotte
Round of 8 (3,000+PP) - Tracks: Kansas, Texas, Phoenix
Championship 4 (4,000 only) at Homestead-Miami

Camping World Truck Series
Fields for these races have been reduced from 36 drivers to 32.

Eldora qualifying
For the Eldora Dirt Derby, qualifying begins with trucks going out one at a time and taking two laps around the dirt oval, with the faster lap counting.  Speeds will be used to determine the starting lineups for each of five qualifying races (NASCAR insists on using the terminology; everyone else calls them "heats.")  The top five drivers in each race qualify for the 150-lap main race, with starting positions alternating.  The next two spots will be filled in a last-chance race among all remaining drivers.  Provisionals will then be used to fill the rest of the field as at all other events.

The length of each of the first five heats is 10 laps, while the last-chance qualifier will last for 15 laps.  During caution periods, laps will not count.

Finishing order for the five qualifying races will be set based on wins in past heats, with best remaining finish as tiebreaker.   If there are fewer drivers in a heat than those that have participated before, those with the best qualifying speeds will take the remaining transfer positions.

For the last-chance qualifier, the drivers with best remaining finish will advance, or those with the best qualifying speeds if necessary.

The driver with the winning pole speed will win the pole award regardless of his/her position in the first heat race.

Playoff structure
Round of 8 (2,000+playoff points) - Tracks: New Hampshire, Las Vegas, Talladega
Round of 6 (3,000+PP) - Tracks: Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix
Championship 4 (4,000 only) at Homestead-Miami

Saturday, July 8, 2017

A new story from the latest family reunion

One similarity between my real family and the Barefoot family is the over-the-top reunions they hold.  Both meet every other year, but there are some significant differences.

The McMillon reunion (my mom's side) rotates among different cities, has multi-day events, and convene every year ending in an even number.  On the other hand, the Barefoot family meets for only one day in the same location - Meadow, NC, of course - and comes together only in odd-numbered years.

Some time ago, I completed an InDesign project with a complete program for the Barefoots, and I dated it in 2015.  That means it's time once again for the reunion, and as it happens, it's supposed to take place today.

What appears below is a page from the new, revised program.  For this, I update the adventures of Brandy, Bunky, and Blake from the last event.  Blake is the middle brother of Brandy and Bunky; he lives separately from the other siblings and with their parents, Daniel and Laurie.



This is the first of a three-page article.  It mentions Brandy and Bunky: R.O.A.M., the TV series I have summarized before.  On Page 2, I write that Brandy is now a professional ballroom dancer and Bunky has taken up parkour, or freerunning, an extreme sport in which athletes jump between buildings and tackle other big obstacles.

As for page 3, I touch on Blake leading the local football team to a conference championship as the starting quarterback, winning the Johnston County championship in the javelin throw, and his plans to travel to London to pursue a career as a professional darts thrower.

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Brandy and Bunky R.O.A.M. - Season 1, part 2

Here are the last five episodes of the first season of the New Earth travelogue series Brandy and Bunky R.O.A.M.

Episode #6 - Tibet/Burma/Thailand
The siblings travel to a region with history, intrigue, and recent turmoil.

An overnight stay takes them to Lhasa, the capital of Tibet.  Once a large, independent kingdom, Tibet was taken over by China in the early 20th century, the Dalai Lama was sent into exile, and the Communist government cracked down on political opponents.

Another overnight in Kathmandu is followed by an entry into Burma.  Also known politically as Myanmar, this was ruled by a military junta for most of the 20th and also start of the 21st centuries.  Brandy and Bunky visit Mandalay, a well-known trading post and river town.  They buy souvenirs at the night market and see a show with traditional dancing and folk poetry.

Over the next two days, they travel down river to Rangoon (also called Yangon) and then down the coast to Bangkok.  The city had been known for its congestion, sanitation issues, and prostitution.  But now that Bangkok has been cleaned up in the New Era, it is acclaimed as one of the most beautiful cities in all of Asia.  There, the siblings split up for the first time.

Brandy visits the Garden of Maidens, a beyond-beautiful garden area and residential district built in the city's former red-light district.  She has her picture taken with locals and exchanges gifts.  Meanwhile,  Bunky is taught the intimate details of muay thai kickboxing, the "national sport" of Thailand.  After the lesson, his instructor takes him to the city's stadium where they watch a card along with about 40,000 other spectators.  In a surprise, Bunky is invited into the ring to take on one of the up-and-coming stars of the martial art - and holds his own!

Episode #7 - Australia (Part 1)
Brandy and Bunky cross the Indian/Pacific Channel to Australia, and specifically the "top end" and "red center" regions.

They begin in the area around Uluru, the sacred rock formation and most renowned landmark of the aboriginal people.  With the return of Jesus Christ, the natives' way of life and traditional beliefs were called into question.  People even started to climb Uluru, which has always been discouraged.

After a two-day trip by all-terrain vehicle, the siblings arrive in Darwin, the unofficial capital of the "Top End," the tropical region of extreme northern Australia.  There, they are greeted by Brett Hart, marine biologist and professor at the University of Melbourne.  After Christ's return, he was among the first to notice behavorial changes in the marine animals living off the island nation/continent's vast waters.  Dolphins, whales, and walruses suddenly had their biology changed, transforming them from mammals to fish.  "It is symbolic of how God re-created the world," Hart says.

Brandy and Bunky spend an hour playing in the waters with two dolphins and a whale shark.  After they surface, they call it their favorite highlight of the trip so far.  This episode ends with an overnight stay in Darwin.

Episode #8 - Australia (Part 2)
The siblings' 10-day grand tour of Australia continues with a trip to a "station," or cattle ranch, co-owned by Hayley McBroom and Bill "Budgie" Miller.  McBroom is one of the biggest musical stars in Australia; she began with its version of country music, but has now emerged as a cross-over superstar.  The demure lady ("I can't believe she's such a star," remarks Brandy) used her platform to support evangelicals and even toured with the famed Hillsong group. 

Some years before the Appearing, McBroom and Miller - girlfriend and boyfriend - moved to the station that Miller's grandparents had built, located about 20 miles west of Sydney.  It's a working ranch, and what Brandy and Bunky do is pretty much like what they do at home.  But it's all worth it to enjoy some of the tastiest food in the nation, and a world-famous performance of songs on behalf of the entire community.

On their final day Down Under, the siblings participate in First Friday, a live art and music show held by the city of Sydney in commemoration of First Night, the event in which Jesus Christ officially took control of the New Earth.  It even ends in a fireworks show.

Episode #9 - Hawaii
It's across the Pacific for the siblings, to travel to the only current U.S. state that was once an independent kingdom.  The islands were ruled by monarchs from their unification in 1796 to its takeover by the U.S. in 1898 (then on to statehood in 1959).

The siblings' first stop is the Iolani Palace, where in these new days God has granted the restoration of the old monarchy.  The ruler is a young woman named Mahalani Martin, the six-times-great-granddaughter of King Kamehameha, the unifier of the islands.  She talks to them about the many cultural and political programs she has initiated to mark the new chapter in Hawaiian history.

Bunky, of course, is always up for adventure, and in Hawaii that means surfing.  At first, he finds the waves intimidating, but he adjusts quickly and turns it into another enjoyable adventure.  Meanwhile, Brandy attends a local school and participates in a local show of fashion, arts, and crafts.

That night the siblings reunite in downtown Honolulu for a communal luau and local music.

Episode #10 - Mexico
The ultimate adventure wraps up just on the other side of the U.S. border.  On day 1, Brandy and Bunky take in the awesome scene in the "new" Mexico City, which now floats on the restored Lake Texcoco.  This means the city is smaller in size than the contemporary metropolis, but is also far more beautiful.  After a delicious dinner, it's on to their hotel room.

The next day, a four-wheeler takes them to Guanajuato, a small city in central Mexico in the midst of a "hearth region," where many familiar foods - like sweet potatoes, beans, and tomatoes - were first grown in ancient times.  There, Brandy and Bunky meet Alicia, the city's mayor.  She espouses on how profoundly life has changed since Jesus' return: "For the first time we can remember, we have bumper crops year after year.  All our physical and spiritual needs are supplied, and there is no longer a need to find jobs elsewhere."  Alicia explains that many of her residents had migrated to Mexico City and various cities in the U.S.

The siblings then visit an apartment complex full of some of these returnees.  To their astonishment, one of them is Jorge, who was once a neighbor of theirs back home in Meadow.  He tells the harrowing story of how he crossed a dangerous border in the Arizona desert, then had to pay a buscón, or scout, to get on an overcrowded bus to get to North Carolina.  There, he established a family and sent his two children to the local school.  But, "when Christ came back, we just couldn't wait to get back here, since we wanted to be here all along," Jorge says through tears.

On such a high note, Brandy and Bunky return home.  Although the siblings separate as Brandy starts her new role in The History of Dance, their next adventure together is in the back of their minds.  "I never knew traveling could be such fun, and we can't wait to do this again," Brandy says.