Since 2009, I have playing out those questions in various sports, based on my intuition and knowledge of sports history (not on computer simulations or board games such as APBA; believe me, I tried to change one seasons' cards into those of Pro Football Hall of Fame players and came up short in the attempt.)
Some of this was on a board related to 506 Sports, which tracks schedules and commentators for sports events, mainly in North America and specifically the United States and Canada. When the moderator ended that, someone on 506 spun off a forum called All-Time Sports where the conversation continued. I contributed simulated results in the NFL, Major League Baseball, the NBA, the NHL, some college sports, and NASCAR in that thread.
I thought that was the end of it, until last spring when one of my fellow users pointed me to AlternateHistory.com. He all but invited me to go there if I had anything new to contribute, and within weeks a new idea came. I chose to go back to NASCAR, and I did so for two reasons:
- I watch NASCAR more intently than any other sport. This goes back to my B.W. character and my desire to figure out where he would rank with the drivers who were on track at the time. Even though I quit that after a 2007 vacation to Las Vegas on a week off for the premier series (don't ask), I have continued to be a fan ever since.
- The fundamental changes to NASCAR in the years since my contributions to All-Time Sports are greater than for any other sport I have tracked. While other sports have merely introduced new athletes, game schedules, and even venues (with the most notable example of the last of those being the NFL International Series in London and Mexico City), NASCAR has literally changed so much as to be unrecognizable - from introducing overtime and double-file restarts after cautions to changing the race cars and tracks a number of times.
In 2004, NASCAR had already introduced a playoff system, called the Chase, which it has since changed several times including even the name itself. I decided not to run it as a tribute to long-time sponsor R.J. Reynolds, as in the Winston Cup. But I long had questions about how different the season might have gone.
But the big impetus was the announcement on Jan. 21, 2017, that changed the very face of each race in the top three series - Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and Camping World Truck Series. I went to the Jayski page at ESPN.com and got these details:
• At the end of the race, the winner will get 40 points, and then second through 35th will be awarded points on a 35-to-2 scale. Those finishing 36th to 40th will be awarded one point. There will be no bonus points for leading a lap or leading the most laps.
• NASCAR will award points 10-to-1 to the top-10 drivers at the end of each of the first two segments. The number of laps of each of the first two segments will be the same in a race (and won't change if the caution comes out), and the end of the second stage will be approximately at the halfway point of the race. A race would be official after the second stage if it rains.
• Drivers will now carry bonus points -- called "playoff points" -- throughout the entire playoffs (instead of just the first round) when the points get reset [to 2,000]. Drivers will earn five playoff points for every race win and one playoff point for every segment win. The top-10 drivers in the standings in the regular season also earn additional playoff points on a 15-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 scale. Drivers will continue to accumulate points throughout the playoffs and carry all the points earned during the year into each of the first three playoff rounds.
• Qualifying for the playoffs remains the same -- the regular-season champion plus 15 drivers based on wins with ties broken by points will get into the playoffs, as long as they are in the top 30 in the standings.
• The playoffs will remain divided into three three-race rounds with four drivers eliminated after each round to set up four finalists for the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Drivers automatically qualify into the next round with a win in that playoff round, and the remaining spots filled by the point standings. At Homestead, the top-finishing driver among the four finalists at the end of the race wins the title.
• The race purse will be paid at the final stage.
• The 150-mile qualifying races at Daytona will be worth points to the top-10 drivers on a 10-to-1 scale (just like a race segment), but the winners do not get bonus points for the playoffs.
• NASCAR won't allow teams to replace body panels during a race, and teams will have additional limitations on crash repair that likely will mean most drivers who have to go to the garage won't return for the remainder of the race.
So I decided to post some hypothetical results on the Alternate History site, set last February at Daytona Speedweeks. However, after some soul-searching, I have found that AH is just not right for me, and therefore no more posts will appear there. (Mainly it's because most of the content begins at a certain point in history and it changes. There is no "certain point" here, since the drivers come from different eras.)
But I feel this place is perfect. For one thing, I control all the content that appears, as long as it complies with all the site rules, of course. For another, my character would love it; these are the drivers he would have admired at the very least, and competed against in some cases. (I "followed" his career from 2003 to the start of '07.) Finally, this provides new content for the blog, which I have not posted in quite some time.
So let's get started.
On this post, I will summarize the basic rules for the hypothetical season. With the next, I will "begin" the season with the biggest races of the year, the aforementioned speedweeks events including the Daytona 500.
All series
Races from season 1.0 will be re-run in their entireties when applicable. The only difference is the division of each race into three stages. The number of stages for each race, and their percentage of the total number of laps in the scheduled distance, will vary from race to race. See the individual pages on my Excel files for details.
Stage 1
Results of stage 1 will be based on the number of career wins in that race by drivers who qualified for the race. The driver with the most wins will be the stage winner and pick up 10 stage points and 1 playoff point, if eligible. The driver second in wins will get 9 stage points, the third-best will get 8, and so on, down to 1 point for 10th place.
For example, Richard Petty will win stage 1 of the Daytona 500, as he holds the record for the most wins in the "Great American Race" with 7.
Scenarios
⦁ If more than one driver has the same number of race wins, the driver with the best remaining finish in that race will be placed highest in the running order. So those who finished as a runner-up in another race would be placed ahead of a third-place finisher, who would be ahead of a fourth-place finisher, and so on.
⦁ If there are fewer than 10 race winners in the field for that race, the drivers with the best remaining finishes in that race will earn stage points.
⦁ If fewer than 10 drivers in the starting lineup have participated in the race before, remaining stage points will go to drivers with the best starting positions.
Stage 2
Results of stage 2 will be based on the average career finishes in that race by drivers that have qualified for the race. The driver with the best average finish will receive 10 stage points and 1 playoff point, if eligible. The one with the next-best average gets 9 points, the one with the third-best average gets 8, and so on, down to 1 point for 10th place.
However, to qualify for possible stage points for average finish, drivers must have competed in a minimum number of races. Exact minimums are as follows:
⦁ For races run 9 or fewer times - 3
⦁ Races run 10-24 times - 4
⦁ Races run 25-39 times - 5
⦁ Races run 40 or more times - 6
If fewer than 10 drivers in the starting lineup have qualifying averages, remaining stage points will go to the drivers who had the best finishing positions after Stage 1.
Please note that the results of stages 1 and 2 are based only on past results in that particular race, not on total wins or average finishes at the host tracks overall.
Stage 3
Results of stage 3 - and therefore the overall finish of the entire race - will be determined by duplicating the overall finish of the corresponding race in version 1.0. The point system will be as described by Jayski/ESPN above.
Drivers not entered in the previous version will be inserted at the administrator's discretion. (That's my role, of course.) Returning competitors will usually, but not always, have the same position. That is dependent on the relative strength of the teams for which they drive.
If there was no corresponding race in version 1.0, the final running order will be determined by the administrator based on a number of factors, including past results of each driver and statistical likelihood from certain starting positions.
Point eligibility
Drivers can only compete for the championship in one of the three series and will accumulate points only in that series.
Drivers in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series with at least 180 career starts as of the end of the 2016 season - the equivalent of five full seasons - are limited to ten races in the Xfinity Series and seven in the Camping World Truck Series. They cannot compete in any of the last eight races on the schedule (playoffs plus the preceding race), nor can any Cup driver - regardless of experience - drive in the season finales at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Qualifying
Starting lineups for all races are determined by the administrator. Only the top qualifying speed will be made public, except for the Daytona 500 for which the entire sheet will be published.
In Cup races, all chartered drivers and the top four open drivers will make the field. Starting positions will be set in straight order from 1 through 40. If there are more open entries than spots available, the last-place open driver(s) will fail to qualify.
For Xfinity races, the 33 drivers with the top results will start in that order. This will be followed by six drivers qualifying with provisionals based on owner points for the teams they drive for. The last spot will go to either a past champion or the driver for the team next-highest in points.
In the truck series, the procesure is the same, except that the top 27 results are locked in, followed by four provisionals plus one.
The Daytona 500 and Eldora truck series starting fields will be determined by qualifying races, with the fields set by the original qualifying sheet.
If qualifying is canceled, owners' points will set the field, with teams making all attempts starting ahead of those that did not, followed by season race winners and past champions if necessary.
Race and pole statistics
The average of the last five races will be used to determine the race speed, number of cautions, and number of lead changes. If a race was shortened, the cautions and lead-change numbers will be projected for a full race.
Winning pole speeds for all races, except for the Daytona 500 and the Eldora truck races, will be based on an average of the last five qualifying contests held.
Some figures may be excluded from the averages if, in the administrator's discretion, they are disproportionate from the remaining numbers in the set.
Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series
Qualifying
Each race will have 40 drivers, down from 43 in Season 1.0.
Thirty-five (35) starting positions in each race are reserved for the drivers who finished atop the season standings in version 1.0. They are (with season point totals):
1. Jeff Gordon - 5,279
2. Dale Earnhardt - 5,269
3. Richard Petty - 4,984
4. Mark Martin - 4,961
5. Rusty Wallace - 4,867
6. Cale Yarborough - 4,812
7. David Pearson - 4,776
8. Darrell Waltrip - 4,707
9. Tony Stewart - 4,647
10. Davey Allison - 4,634
11. Bobby Allison - 4,626
12. Bill Elliott - 4,581
13. Dale Jarrett - 4,537
14. Terry Labonte - 4,505
15. Bobby Labonte - 4,313
16. Ned Jarrett - 4,176
17. Harry Gant - 3,826
18. Jeff Burton - 3,713
19. Tim Richmond - 3,682
20. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - 3,546
21. Kurt Busch - 3,503
22. Ricky Rudd - 3,499
23. Buck Baker - 3,408
24. Dave Marcis - 3,366
25. Alan Kulwicki - 3,283
26. Lee Petty - 3,248
27. Matt Kenseth - 3,200
28. Neil Bonnett - 3,015
29. Benny Parsons - 2,977
30. Sterling Marlin - 2,836
31. A.J. Foyt - 2,821
32. Fireball Roberts - 2,808
33. Kenny Wallace - 2,451
34. Tim Flock - 2,446
35. Joe Weatherly - 2,421
The 36th position was assigned to Jimmie Johnson, who has tied the all-time record with seven season titles. Johnson was 40th in season 1.0, in which he was full-time starting with the Southern 500.
This mimics the charter system that was established by NASCAR for the series in 2016. Charters are awarded to owners based on at least five continuous years of entries, but can be sold or transferred.
All other drivers and teams must compete for remaining spots on an "open" basis, and are subject to failure to qualify if there are more than 40 entries for a given race.
Daytona 500 qualifying
Qualifying for the "Great American Race" begins with a two-round session. Cars enter the track one at a time and take only one lap each. The 12 drivers with the fastest laps qualify for the second and final round, at which the fastest driver gains the pole position and the next-fastest starts alongside.
All other starting spots are determined at the Can-Am Duel at Daytona. The pole sitter for the Daytona 500 is also the pole sitter for race #1, and the second-fastest driver from single-car qualifying is on the pole for race #2. The rest of the starting fields is determined as thus:
⦁ Race #1 - 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th fastest and so on from qualifying laps among the guaranteed starters, and the fastest, 3rd, etc. from the open drivers
⦁ Race #2 - 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th fastest and so on from the first phase among the guaranteed starters, and the 2nd fastest, 4th, etc. from the open drivers
Once the races are completed, the starting lineup for the Daytona 500 is set on this basis:
⦁ Drivers with the two fastest laps from the first phase
⦁ Top remaining finisher from race #1 then starts 3rd, then all other drivers in that race 5th, 7th, 9th etc. back to 37th, including the top open driver
⦁ Top remaining finisher from race #2 then starts 4th, then all others in that race 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th etc. back to 38th, again including the top open driver
⦁ The last two spots go to the third- and fourth-fastest non-guaranteed drivers from the original qualifying laps
All other open drivers will be eliminated.
As mentioned above, stage points will be awarded to the top 10 finishers in each race, as well as better starting positions.
Playoff structure
Round of 16 (2,000+playoff points) - Tracks: Chicagoland, New Hampshire, Dover
Round of 12 (3,000+PP) - Tracks: Charlotte, Kansas, Talladega
Round of 8 (4,000+PP) - Tracks: Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix
Championship 4 (5,000 only) at Homestead-Miami
Xfinity Series
As with Cup, fields have been reduced from 43 drivers to 40 for each race.
Dash4Cash
This special program, which dates back to 2012, rewards the series' regulars with the chance to win serious bonus money.
Two eligible drivers will qualify for the award after each of the first two stages. If the same driver(s) finish in the top two after each stage, the next driver(s) in the running order after stage two will qualify to make up the four-driver field. The driver who is first across the start/finish line at the end of the race in that group will win $100,000 cash. If a driver sweeps all four such races, he will earn $1,000,000.
No driver with more than 180 career Cup Series starts can compete in any of these races.
The Dream Season schedule will be Phoenix on Mar. 10, Bristol on Apr. 14, Richmond on Apr. 21, and Pocono on Jun. 2.
Playoff structure
Round of 12 (2,000+playoff points) - Tracks: Kentucky, Dover, Charlotte
Round of 8 (3,000+PP) - Tracks: Kansas, Texas, Phoenix
Championship 4 (4,000 only) at Homestead-Miami
Camping World Truck Series
Fields for these races have been reduced from 36 drivers to 32.
Eldora qualifying
For the Eldora Dirt Derby, qualifying begins with trucks going out one at a time and taking two laps around the dirt oval, with the faster lap counting. Speeds will be used to determine the starting lineups for each of five qualifying races (NASCAR insists on using the terminology; everyone else calls them "heats.") The top five drivers in each race qualify for the 150-lap main race, with starting positions alternating. The next two spots will be filled in a last-chance race among all remaining drivers. Provisionals will then be used to fill the rest of the field as at all other events.
The length of each of the first five heats is 10 laps, while the last-chance qualifier will last for 15 laps. During caution periods, laps will not count.
Finishing order for the five qualifying races will be set based on wins in past heats, with best remaining finish as tiebreaker. If there are fewer drivers in a heat than those that have participated before, those with the best qualifying speeds will take the remaining transfer positions.
For the last-chance qualifier, the drivers with best remaining finish will advance, or those with the best qualifying speeds if necessary.
The driver with the winning pole speed will win the pole award regardless of his/her position in the first heat race.
Playoff structure
Round of 8 (2,000+playoff points) - Tracks: New Hampshire, Las Vegas, Talladega
Round of 6 (3,000+PP) - Tracks: Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix
Championship 4 (4,000 only) at Homestead-Miami
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